Well, today feels a bit disappointing because the market  is about $1.80 higher than it was at yesterday’s open.  [22.30 -> 24.10]  Obviously I was looking for an opportunity to get long on this recent decline from the 24.20 area, but felt some hesitation in the wake of the “Steakhouse Sellout” dream which I initially interpreted as a potential warning against getting involved because the girl I was going along with, who I believed had the potential to turn into a significant romantic partner, actually was just using me to create more business for her employer.  I believe there was ambiguity in the dream because my having a hopeful or even false belief about the potential with her was actually about my belief in price possibly continuing lower — but I believed it was also a reasonable interpretation that accumulation highs were already put in, that price would continue significantly lower into the [20.00 – 22.00] area before rebounding.  Because in the dream my premature certainty about it turning into something special with the girl was proven misguided, I thought my belief in taking an aggressive long position could prove to be a mistake.  Conviction in an immediate reversal would have made a purchase at the open, or maybe any time yesterday, appear appropriate.

Also I am feeling some ambiguity in the idea of Lenny Disappearing, things going into slow-motion, etc.  At what point could I have pinned down or declared that the velocity to the downside had disappeared? Obviously there was extremely slow and light trade on Wednesday and Thursday last week due to the holiday, but there was a sharp move prior to that, and a sharp downside move following it on Friday, and again in the Globex/Asia session Sunday evening.  So one couldn’t say that Lenny had disappeared altogether.  In “Syndicate Disappears Lenny” the emphasis shifted from Lenny’s apparent ‘wandering off’ to a guy on the other side of the frame who resembled Lenny’s father.  Maybe that would be meant to symbolize a bigger, greater version of price action I would normally associate with Lenny, i.e. the sharp move down on Friday and Sunday evening, which were quite pronounced.  In the dream where I tried to catch up with Lenny on the mountain (“Catching Up with Lenny”), right when I arrived at the meetup spot, he had already gone off back in the direction we had come from. So, again, this makes no sense if the element of him disappearing is taken to be the holiday-trade period last week.

That said, there are other dream elements surfacing in reflection that would seem to align with this situation, such as in “Frat Poker Frustration,” particularly, where my hand was essentially mucked even though it was the obvious winner.  That dream came on 11/11, as I developed the belief that the accumulation in the wake of the “Flash Crash” would actually prove to be a decent buying opportunity.  I recall going back to the table and finding pocket Aces wedged between slats in the table, then my prior roommate Ryan handed me some pocket-3’s, which is in alignment with the evolution of the price action, declining some and then some more while the original thesis of an upside resolution was still intact.  For someone yet to initiate a position, price location became more favorable, leading to the ‘absolute nuts’, 4-of-a-kind hand, which was a buy anywhere in the low $22 area.  But obviously, the degree of ‘nut-ness’ of that location can only be confirmed with the benefit of hindsight.  Notice how price made drops below the 24.20 area on 11/23, and got continuously lower until 11/29 — that is several days of a ‘gift’ situation that also looked scarier by the minute.  Ultimately, Jack-3 is not a hand you play, anyway, which I tend to go back to as a way of tempering the sting in the disappointment here.  As far as these trading situations go, it just isn’t a good practice, in general, to take gambles on prior levels holding so precisely when the market has been in the accumulation phase for so long.  The penalty for getting it wrong can often be catastrophic because the pent-up energy in the market can lead to a high-energy release which takes price far beyond a comfortable level, thus obliterating the value in the trade.  Especially when dealing with options, where one must be sensitive to timing, a trade position might get completely wiped in such an event.

Also, the “Grosjean Apology Sandwiches” would seem to have been a good clue about the short duration spent at these recent lows.  Whereas I had anticipation of waning energy and declining volume, the smaller-than-expected bag of sandwiches was more likely to be representative of simply less total time.  Additionally, now that I think about it, I have seen some amateurish technical trading strategy discussed on Youtube describing the “sandwich” technique, where price does a 2-bar reversal.  That probably is relevant here.

While I am not certain about the exact path price will take in the interim, I am now of higher conviction that the next major pivotal juncture for a meaningful downside reversal will be in alignment with what has been already been outlined in  “Shake The Plane” and “There’s Bears Up There”, among others.  I would assume that price will reach $26 for an ‘out and back’ excursion, like I described in the conversation with Gordon Ramsey in “Boat Trip Reminisce”.

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