At first I was in a bar or cafe type of place, during the daytime.  Suddenly something happened near the front of the shop which startled the customers, so as I saw they were ‘spooked’ I anticipated them moving toward the rear-left area like a herd.  There was a row of chairs along the wall in the far left corner area, somewhat like a lobby or waiting area, and the right side of this rear area included the end of the bar counter which had individual swivel stools.  I anticipated there being some potential competition/contention for the available space, since the whole place would now try to cram into a smaller area, so I sat on one of the swivel stools in the ‘cannon-ball’ position, thinking that the crowd would first fight for chairs, then for floor space.

Then I recall a transition to suddenly being in a different place that felt more like a country-club restaurant, or club-house dining area, which was nicely furnished, obviously less organized than a restaurant business; in this place one could sit wherever they wanted to, share tables with other guests if they preferred.  I was then speaking with a guy who I think was younger, perhaps in his early or mid-20s, and he was saying something about how he didn’t get along with or particularly like a specific woman.  The woman in question was a member of the club, middle-aged, like late-50s, and her name was “Ladi”.  I confirmed it was this particular woman he was referring to.  I kind of shrugged about it; I didn’t have a problem with her, per se.  I knew her as a kind of the ‘joker’ type, one of those self-proclaimed “I tell it like it is!” personalities where they get off on being a bit tactless sometimes, but usually in jest, not to be deliberately harmful.  I imagined that something she said may have caused some dissonance in this young guy, as young guys that age are often more full of ‘shoulds,’ it can lead to a rift.

Then suddenly I remembered that I had an appointment for something like a coffee-date meeting with my childhood neighbor, CalTech biochemistry research scientist, Dennis.  I was definitely aware of the time.  I knew I had to get back over to the more urban area where the bar/cafe was, and that trip would only take about five minutes from where I was, and the meeting time was about five minutes away, so it appeared my timing would be quite good.  I just have this sense that I was going to pick him up, then we’d have our meeting somewhere familiar, like that original bar/cafe.  The exact logistics weren’t clear but I was comfortable I’d be well within the customary window of accepted punctuality.

— — — — — — — — — —

The first and second paragraphs conjure the idea of price going into its final throws of the current up-trend. If one thinks of the $22 area as the front of the shop, and the $26 area as the back, then that gives clues about how price movement is now in a phase characterized by ‘public’ participation. It also indicates where I am currently looking to take my position. The ‘rift’ between the young guy and “Ladi” is indicative of the tension in the somewhat-naive perspective that markets ‘ought’ to turn on a dime once the default outcome becomes obvious– one could view the last gasp efforts of a market to continue moving up once it is past its prime as an exercise in futility, and somewhat nonsensical/irrational from a trading perspective because of the conviction in its subsequent negative outcome. My experience has taught me, however, to try to appreciate the full ‘narrative’ of these trends, much like recognizing every movie cast member for playing a vital role, even if they portray irritating characters. The distinct element of Ladi spelling of her name with an ‘i’ when the conventional spelling would be with a ‘y’ is representative of the idea of someone making a trivial change to something that is always fundamentally the same, believing in themselves being unique even though they are just doing something quite ordinary. It is the mark of a buyer who takes a long position in this phase, deluded into believing that ‘this time it’s different’, etc, when they are just acting like one of the rest.

I believe that the third paragraph could indicate something like the emergence of the ‘fact’ that price is/was unsustainably high, as it goes from being an element of speculation and contention among market participants, to becoming closer to scientific ‘objective reality,’ i.e. nearly everyone becomes aware of the pending outcome. Obviously, if one has not taken their position by then, there is likely to be very little opportunity to get in at favorable prices. Absent the details of the logistics, I felt comfortable about the timing, so that feels positive.

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